Mariners basically added J.A. Happ for one-year, $62 million

Casey McLain | 3 December, 2014 | Mariners | 16 Comments

Signing Nelson Cruz was a move made by the Mariners using questionable decision making. Cruz is no longer an outfielder of any quality, and while the Mariners indicated that Cruz will primarily DH, that only raises the baseline at which Cruz will have to perform at the plate to be truly average.

We realize that Cruz won’t be a 40 homer guy in all likelihood – not while playing his home games in Safeco Field. However, coming into Wednesday, it was unarguable that the Mariners had done anything but made themselves better. If Cruz is truly worth the 1.5 WAR that Steamer projects he’d be a 3.6 WAR marginal gain over the fecal matter the Mariners deployed at the position in 2014 — Kendrys Morales, Corey Hart, and Jesus Montero combined for -2.1 WAR at DH. Getting a 3.6 WAR gain in this market for only $14.5 million per season on average seems like a bargain, but to measure it that way completely ignores the principles of replacement level. Nonetheless, Cruz was an upgrade, albeit one that some (me at least) would argue was substantially too expensive (also one that could have been outpaced by an Adam Lind/John Mayberry platoon).

That said, trading Michael Saunders for J.A. Happ was simply asinine, and basically undoes all of the good done from overspending on Cruz. Steamer projects Saunders for 2.4 WAR in 2015, but also projects that he’ll have 580 plate appearances. The latter is unlikely considering Saunders career high is 553 plate appearances, but the pace set by the former isn’t completely unrealistic. In only 263 plate appearances Saunders was worth 1.9 WAR in 2014.

So Cruz in addition to Saunders was a marginal gain. Cruz without Saunders is basically a wash, and preys on a position – any outfield position that is – for which the Mariners have very little organizational depth. In essence, the Mariners have swapped something like a league average outfielder for something like a league average DH, spent $58 million, and gained J.A. Happ and his $6.7 million in salary (about $4.0 million more than Saunders will make in 2015 according to MLBTR’s arbitration estimate).

Of course, Saunders only had two more years of team control, and the Mariners will have Cruz for four. The last two years of that contract figure to be pretty ugly though, which doesn’t present much of a marginal gain, and there’s potential Cruz is something close to replacement level by then.

For Happ’s part, hes posted a career 109 xFIP- (nine percent worse than league average). He’s 32 years old, and he’s never surpassed 1.8 WAR, and has been worth 1.2 and 1.3 WAR in 2013 and 2014 respectively.

Essentially the Mariners have gained one year of J.A. Happ for $62 million, which is quite an expensive price to pay for a fifth starter.

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Casey McLain

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stymeedone

I hate the reliance on “new” statistics. Offensively, Cruz is a huge upgrade over the frauds that hit as DH last year for the Mariners. Comparing him with Saunders, and making the assumption that one is replacing the other is ridiculous. To then call it a “push”, is “asinine.” I have a hard time believing that the Mariners wont be able to find a .240 hitter who is a capable RF to replace Saunders. (Andy Dirks?) J. A. Happ will look much better in Seattle than in homer friendly Toronto, but he is likely less than they would have gotten had management not lambasted Saunders conditioning. Once they did that, Saunders was done in Seattle. To get a Curt Young replacement is not that bad a result. Money saved for other needs. Lack of a career .240 RF will not prove to be the cause of a failed World Series bid.
- Anonanon
  
  “I have a hard time believing that the Mariners won’t be able to find a .240 hitter who is a capable RF to replace saunders.” First of all, rly, batting avg.? Lol good luck finding an outfielder in FA right now with above average power, decent on base ability, good baserunning and good defense for under 4M, injury risk be damned.
Hall y

I believe Saunders has 5 WAR over the last 6 years. Even using modern math and Saberism, that don’t sound like to great. JZ had a reason to make his comments. One part season of Saunders being good is what you are talking about. Since when does that make him a $62 million dollar man? All that and I did like him quite a bit.
- Casey McLain
  
  He has 5.4 WAR over the last three years. Cruz has 6.6 WAR.
rightwingrick

A three game difference with Cruz puts us in the playoffs, so I’ll take that. As for Happ, he looked really strong at the end of 2014, after coming back from injury; when he was hit in the head with a line drive, he hurt his knee when he went down, and that was a long time coming back. He’s now hitting 93 MPH with a good slider as well, and he’s always pitched in very friendly HITTERS parks. So he’s got some upside with us, and does protect against injury, which Walker, Paxton, Iwakuma, and Elias all suffered last year. Saunders is ready for his breakout year, though, so I share your angst on that trade. He was always played out of position in Seattle, and was hurt while playing in unfamiliar territory and learning on the job. I’m predicting about .275/.345 with 20 homers and 15 stolen bases, to go along with his good speed, good arm, and good defense. I’ve been watching him since he was signed by Seattle, and don’t think those numbers are out of reach at all. He may see an All-Star game in the near future, in my opinion.
GD

Happ added velocity to his FB in 2014 and is consistently hitting 94mph as a LHP. This guy is going to our version of the 2014 Chris Young. This was a really decent move to add SP depth. Elias can replace Beimel as the BP LHP, and a spot starter, or emergency starter….versus relying on E-Ramirez.

Also, Toronto is paying the salary difference between the Saunders and Happ contract, so Seattle only has to pay $3m on Happ, so we are not adding salary in the Saunders/Happ swap.

Regarding Cruz? He hit 25 of his 2014 HRs away from Camden Park last year. His HRs average 405+ feet, so he won’t have a problem hitting at least 5-8 HRs in Safeco. Cruz hits the ball hard, and solidifies our top weakness at DH. Seattle has so much revenue coming out their ying-yang with the RSN revenue that they could ‘easily’ add another $40m (after the Cruz signing) and still be extremely profitable! MLB TV mentioned last month that MLB is increasing their MLB contribution this WInter from $25m to $50m for each MLB team. Seattle had an increase of attendance revenue of $21m in 2014. Plus Seattle is one of the ‘few’ MLB teams that has a paid off stadium, which they paid off in 2013. Just a FYI…A’s just signed a $1.8m lease in October to play in a pathetic rundown stadium.

I see the Mariners landing one of: Melky Or Kemp. Melky and his OPS as a switch hitter in the #2 hole would be huge for the #3 and #4 hitters in our lineup.

And they ‘still’ would have the funds to land Lester Or Scherzer for $25-26m/yr. But interestingly, there are so many TOR SP that are avail through trade like Zimmerman, Cueto, etc, etc that I don’t think we have to pay the $25-26m for Lester or Scherzer. This week is going to be the most exciting week in Mariners history.

GO MARINERS!!!
- Josh
  
  Toronto is not sending any money to Seattle in the deal as far as i have read. Where did you get that info?
GK

I like how you say that Cruz would only be a slight upgrade at DH because to do otherwise would be completely ignoring “the principles of replacement level” while at the same time you completely ignore the principles of WAR in your argument. If, as you admit in this article, Cruz is likely to be a DH the vast majority of the season then the 1.5 WAR projection you quote is more than just a little off. Since you frame the argument as though you know little to nothing about advance metrics I’ll keep it simple. WAR factors in both defensive and offensive numbers and/or perceived ability.

Seeing the problem yet? Your argument is based on Cruz having a projected WAR as an outfielder, meaning it is factored in that he is playing what he calls defense (the rest of the world calls it a circus). Don’t believe me? Go back to your Steamer projections and look again.

Still not getting it? DH doesn’t play defense (at least last I checked). If he isn’t playing defense then you have to remove that negative from those calculations, hence his WAR should be projected higher than where it currently is.

Also, by stating this argument as the addition of Cruz and Happ with the subtraction of Saunders, you make the assumption that these moves are the only ones that are going to be made by the M’s this offseason. That seems highly unlikely given that the front office has said multiple times that they have more moves to make.
If you are going to try and make a logical argument about how bad these moves were either a) learn about the statistical numbers you are trying to use to be able to make a complete argument or b) if you really do know about said numbers don’t “forget” to factor in the whole equation to spin the argument in your favor.

Also a quick side note about his projected WAR: somehow those numbers predicted have him putting up (by far) the worst numbers he has since 2007 and well off his 10 year average????
Having said all of that I would have much preferred the M’s kept Saunders and gotten rid of an Ackley or Miller if they felt they needed Happ. I liked Saunders and his talent (a lot) and hope he is able to stay healthy and flourish in his new opportunity.
- Casey McLain
  
  “Still not getting it? DH doesn’t play defense (at least last I checked). If he isn’t playing defense then you have to remove that negative from those calculations, hence his WAR should be projected higher than where it currently is.”
  
  This is factually incorrect. There is a -17.5 run adjustment for DH. For example, David Ortiz’s defensive value on fangraphs
  - Steen
    
    That’s assuming you think the positional adjustments are accurate in general along with the logic behind attaching a negative baseline for the DH.
  - Casey McLain
    
    I definitely agree with the logic behind adjusting for the scarcity of the DH-capable player. A player being completely one-dimensional is less valuable, not without value, but less valuable.
    
    It’s entirely possible that the evolution of baseball has muddied the positional adjustment waters, and advanced stats will continue to adjust to that. Right now what Fangraphs has is an aggregation of the leading edge of modern stats. They’re quite frankly the best we’ve ever had available to the public. Doesn’t mean their infallible, but there’s nobody better.
  - Steen
    
    This is also being influenced by the assumptions around what a replacement level player is. The negative WAR by Mariner designated hitters over the last 5 years nicely illustrates the difference between hypothetical availability and real world options. Fangraphs has its merits but they speak in absolutes about things that are far from gospel. I have a suspicion Happ’s performance come August is going to make all the rending of garments done at LL and elsewhere look a bit silly in retrospect.
  - Casey McLain
    
    I think the Mariners inability to maintain replacement level at DH is more a commentary on them than Fangraphs definition of replacement level.
    
    For what it’s worth, I rarely read Fangraphs, LL, USSM, or really anything else. There are plenty of quality writers on all those websites, but because I attempt to write about these topics, I have a hard time not being swayed by people I read. When I talk about the quality of Fangraphs it is from a statistical database perspective.
    
    That said, this blog may not fit your sensibilities, which is fine. There are many less statistics oriented blogs around.
Dogham

Cruz is at least a 5 win difference over our DH’s. Happ with improved velocity over the 2nd half of 2014 and moving away from the cardboard box known as Rogers Centre realistically can be a 14-8, 3.77 era pitcher with Seattle and sign an extension. The Jays however can try to guess if Saunders will play more than his 92 game avg over six season with the M’s or if they will be forced to play roster roulette and use up player options on young players moving the Condor on and off the DL. That’s something A.A. and Toronto can deal with.
- Casey McLain
  
  “We realize that Cruz won’t be a 40 homer guy in all likelihood – not
  playing his games in Safeco Field. However, coming into Wednesday, it
  was unarguable that the Mariners had done anything but made themselves
  better. If Cruz is truly worth the 1.5 WAR that Steamer projects he’d be
  a 3.6 WAR marginal gain over the fecal matter the Mariners deployed at
  the position in 2014 — Kendrys Morales, Corey Hart, and Jesus Montero
  combined for -2.1 WAR at DH. Getting a 3.6 WAR gain in this market for
  only $14.5 million per season on average seems like a bargain, but to
  measure it that way completely ignores the principles of replacement
  level. Nonetheless, Cruz was an upgrade, albeit one that some (me at
  least) would argue was substantially too expensive (also one that could
  have been outpaced by an Adam Lind/John Mayberry platoon).”
  
  He’ll be a 3.6 WAR improvement over the other DHs, but only because the DHs were so bad. The Mariners have the opportunity to add a replacement level DH at basically no cost if they were a bit more savvy — Delmon Young for example.
  - Casey McLain
    
    Not to say young will be free, just far less expensive than Cruz.

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