Mariners Mini Morsels: December 27

Much ado about Ma-Kun. He’s definitely the man of the hour, day, week and probably month. He’s pretty easily the prime subject in a slow baseball period. Much of what follows below is related to him and differing views of what he is, was and will become. Gabe Kapler’s piece is valuable, as it seems one of the more balanced opinions. It’s followed by my own opinion, which is all it is. I’ve wanted the M’s to get him for some time now, and I won’t pretend to be unbiased. He won’t be as expensive as Cano but he will be harder to sign. Given that his wife is an entertainer I’m sure she’ll prefer LA or New York City. I’m reminded of David Beckham going to the LA Galaxy and his entertainer wife loving it. If Mrs. Ma-Kun was an IT manager or coffee addict we’d probably be in a better position. If Z can reel this guy in, I’m okay with him getting a contract extension.

 

Masahiro Tanaka, who has 1,313 innings logged in Japan to date, has been identified as having “less-than-perfect” mechanics.  Attempting to predict shoulder and elbow issues due to extensive innings early in a pitcher’s career is an inexact science. Basically, Tanaka is far from a sure thing. Scouts that I’ve consulted with don’t all love Tanaka the same way they did Darvish. Tanaka doesn’t profile physically as a top of the rotation starter like Darvish and lacks the strikeout numbers unique to Yu. Still, a GM told me that he expects Tanaka to grab a contract in the neighborhood of six years and $105M. Add in the $20M posting fee and it’s a $125M spend for the team that ends up landing his services.

I believe that the final number will be north of the GM’s prediction because the upside is so great based on Tanaka’s age. Let’s say his numbers and skillset translate enough to make him a No. 2-3 starter in the AL East, which is where most scouts slot him. I’d say John Lackey, who posted a 3 fWAR in 2013 is a fair comp. If a win is worth roughly $6M, Lackey is worth $18M a year if we are to expect last season’s performance. Lackey’s actual salary for 2014 is $15.25M. The AAV on his current deal is $16.5M – but he inked it at age 30. If you follow the line that, because Tanaka will pitch in 2014 at age 25, you are buying his true prime years like I do, one could make the case that he’s worth more than Lackey and should be signed to a longer contract. Tanaka at seven years and at the exact AAV of Lackey gets $115.5M.

I’d submit that Tanaka’s marketing value over the course of seven years in a city like New York or Los Angeles with their enormous Asian communities offsets the $20M posting fee. Accounting for the fact that Lackey’s deal was signed five years ago, I think you can add to Tanaka’s AAV a bit. Sprinkle in a potential bidding war between for the sake of example, say between the Yankees and Cubs, and we may see a contract that jumps into the seven years, $125M range. Just for fun, seven years of 3 fWAR at $6M per comes out to $126M. (1 WAR is valued at $6.2M based on projected numbers by Dave Cameron, or $7M based on prior cost/value by Lewie Pollis at ESPN.)

I recently spoke to an international scout familiar with Tanaka’s value who suggested that the contract negotiations will start at six years and $100M. The Japanese idol recently signed with Casey Close, who will represent Tanaka in this contract negotiation and is the agent behind New York Yankees (once was) superstar Derek Jeter. We are about to see some fireworks. Grab your beach chair, post up and enjoy. at Fox Sports

 

It might take 8/$160M to sign Tanaka; maybe more. The thing is, if David Price were a free agent now instead of a rental for two seasons, what would he get? Now, Price is MLB-proven and a Cy Young Award winner, so he’d get Felix/Verlander money, probably more than $200M with all the money around now. The NPB is not the MLB, and it’s sometimes referred to as the equal of AAA (ignoring the fact Japan beat the US in the World Classic twice), but if a AAA player had an ERA under 2 the past three seasons and had the AAA equivalent of two Cy Young Awards (Sawamura Awards) he’d probably be the top prospect in the country. His next season will be his age-25 season. A 7 or 8 year contract for him is safer than 10 years for Cano and seven years for Ellsbury or Choo. Given the stated objective of the Yankees to make him their top choice this off-season, and given their very real need for him as well as the real possibility that maybe a half-dozen teams are prepared to do battle for him, it may make 8/$160M a bargain in this market at this time. By Maqman.

 

The Yankees are expected to be aggressive in attempting to close a deal, and while there may be a price they’re not comfortable with — see: Cano, Robinson, new Mariner — he might be seen as the final piece to their 2014 club.

It’s unlikely the Yankees could sign him and remain under their self-imposed $189 million luxury-tax threshold. On the other hand, they’ve emphasized that it was only a loose guideline, and that they intend to be back in contention in 2014.

To do that, Tanaka’s signing would seem to be a must. At the beginning of this process, it seems headed toward an inevitable conclusion. But that’s what plenty of us thought about Cano’s free agency as well. So let the fun begin. This has already been a wild offseason with surprising signings and trades and big money being thrown around here, there and everywhere. Let’s do it one more time. Source: Richard Justice at MLB.com

 

For the Yankees to land Tanaka, they would likely be forced to barrel past their self-imposed $189 million luxury-tax threshold. Either way, reaching that goal appears unattainable without a full-season suspension for third baseman Alex Rodriguez. The team hopes to hear a resolution in Rodriguez’s arbitration hearing by early January. By then, the market for Tanaka should be taking shape. He turned 25 in November and finished this past season with a 24-0 record and a 1.27 ERA. Source: Andy McCullough at The Star-Ledger

 

“The Mariners are going to be a factor,” one baseball official said. “They have a following in Japan. They enjoyed what they had when [Ichiro Suzuki] was on the team. They want the chance for moves like getting Cano to pay off. And they envision [Felix Hernandez] paired with Tanaka at the top of the rotation.” Source: Roger Rubin at the New York Daily News

 

Team officials involved in Tanaka sweepstakes say the Japanese star will cost a minimum of $17 million a year. From: at USAToday

 

AL West Commentary

Buster Olney at ESPN [Insider needed and recommended] has ranked the top 10 line-ups for 2014. Texas is number 1, the Angels are number 5 and the A’s are number 6. It’s starting to look like the AL West is getting as tough as the AL East has been forever. Boston is number 2 and the Yankees are number 10.

 

So they said

“They are becoming a feeder system for the M.L.B.,” said Robert Whiting, who has written several books on Japanese baseball. “Japanese pro baseball has all but disappeared from prime time network television.”

 

“It’s no secret the Mariners are looking for a veteran starter capable of doing more than taking the ball every fifth day with the hope he won’t require a reliever to warm up in the third inning. The pool of free-agent pitchers answering that description is shallow, and any trade for a top-of-the-line pitcher will cost several top-of-the-line prospects. Signing Masahiro Tanaka, on the other hand, won’t cost the Mariners anything except money they can afford to spend. Source: at The Olympian

                                                                                

Bill Bavasi on his trade of Choo to the Indians to Rob Neyer at SB Nation: “More than anything else, the trades that year were just good old-fashioned disasters. There was no specific pressure from above to make any specific move at that time. But I was not operating on the same platform they are now.  Without going into great detail … When I got there it was made REAL clear they didn’t want any five-year plans … and that I’d get a mulligan in 2004, but from then on they’d expect consistent improvement toward a postseason.  When I say “improvement” I mean relative to our record. So even though we operated under some pressure to tangibly improve on a regular basis, the Choo and Cabrera trades were a product of my own stupidity and good work by the Indians.

By the way, I’m not complaining about the “no five-year plans” attitude.  Again, without going into detail … I knew the score going in. We had good things to say about Choo at the time.  We certainly didn’t know what we know now — what a star he’d be — but our people liked him, knew he had skills, great make-up and a high sense of responsibility. We had good, smart people. I just blew it.”

                                                        

Mariner’s potential off-season targets

David Price is overrated because of a favorable pitching environment says Jared Cross at ESPN [Insider needed and recommended]. He writes, “If Price is traded to the Mariners, the change in environments would actually inflate his 3.44 ERA projection up to 3.91. Price doesn’t lose value in a harsher environment — his new unfriendly confines would merely reveal the extent of the help he has received in the past. After accounting for the Rays’ environment, Price is, of course, still a very fine pitcher, just not one who’s likely to be worth what the Rays will demand in a trade.”

 

Baseball Best Practice

I wonder if franchises shouldn’t somehow include their minor-league broadcasters in the decision-making process. Mike Curto (Tacoma Rainiers radio broadcaster) saw Shin-Soo Choo play more than 200 games in the high minors. That was almost certainly more than anyone else in the organization and Curto had a better view than anyone in the organization, including Choo’s managers.

Now, you might think that broadcasters are biased, and of course you’re right. They’re biased. We’re all biased. But broadcasters see a lot of players come and go, and generally they don’t become sentimentally attached to players. Not to the point where they become blinded by their talents or their foibles, anyway. If an experienced broadcaster like Mike Curto sees a guy for 200 games and believes he can play, I’ll tend to believe he can play. Source: Rob Neyer at SB Nation 

 (Editor’s note: It turns out we have this fancy way of making unbiased decisions. It’s called statistics.)

 

By The Numbers

The Red Sox paid $1.82 million per win and the Yankees $2.79 million during the 2013 season. Source: Peter Abraham at the Boston Globe 

(The Mariners paid $1.19 million per win.)